Over the past few weeks there has been a sudden
and dramatic surge in peace activities in Israel and Palestine. All
of a sudden we are receiving more and more requests from Palestinians
for new initiatives aimed at re-engagement and renewing the dialogue.
These initiatives are coming from officials of the Palestinian Authority
and private Palestinians who all seem to be saying that we have to get
beyond the violence and begin to rebuild a peace process. More and more
people are saying that we have to talk again.
Two weeks ago there was the march of thousands
in Jerusalem organized by the Women's Coalition for Peace
(http://www.coalitionofwomen4peace.org/).
That impressive event was followed by an Israeli-Palestinian signing
of
a joint call for peace under the title "Time for Peace" organized
by Prof. Sari Nusseibeh, Yossi Beilin and Yossi
Sarid.
More than 2,000 Israelis and Palestinians signed
the declaration including some of the leaders of Fatah in Jerusalem
and the leaders of the Democratic Front (DFLP) and many Israeli public
figures as well.
Over the past few weeks several other Israeli-Palestinian
meetings have been taking place. The President of South Africa is hosting
a meeting today of high-level Israelis and Palestinians. There was a
meeting in Rome several weeks ago with others.
We in IPCRI have been hearing from our colleagues
that they are also busy with new initiatives. We in IPCRI have a full
schedule of meetings, seminars and working groups consisting of Israelis
and Palestinians officials and non-officials booked through June 2002.
I know that it is dangerous to be optimistic.
The political horizons still look terribly bleak and there is no real
reason for hope. The assessments regarding the possibilities for peace
or even for real talks at the official level have not changed they still
remain next to zero. Arafat and Sharon are not going to change and all
of a sudden embrace each other and peace. There is, however, a sense
that people who supported peace in the past and had fallen into paralyzing
despair over the past 15 months are beginning to come out of their comas
and are searching for constructive avenues to replace their frustration
and anger.
We all have a right to be angry. Instead of being
where we are, nurturing our wounds and mourning for so many deaths after
15 months of terrible violence, we should have been enjoying the fruits
of peace. This fact cannot be overlooked. But from my contacts with
many Palestinians, leaders and regular citizens, I am hearing more and
more voices that are saying that violence has not achieved anything,
in fact the violence has brought about destruction and suffering and
it must end now.
The relative calm of the past two weeks, even
taking into account today's attack against Israeli soldiers in Gaza
and the ship of arms, must not be overlooked and under-estimated. I
do not believe that Arafat has made a new strategic decision to end
all violence and to come to full peace end of conflict with Israel.
But the international pressure that has been placed on Arafat has had
asubstantial effect.
My sense is that the majority of Palestinians
are quite pleased that the violence has been significantly reduced and
would be even happier if it ended completely. This would enable them
to return to more normal lives with the Israeli siege on their homes
ending. But we must also remember that this will not end the occupation
and as long as the occupation is continuing the fight against the occupation
will continue and should continue.
There is talk in the Israeli government about
declaring that the Palestinian Authority is an enemy authority meaning
that Israel will cut all contacts with the PA. There is no doubt in
my mind that this will directly and immediately strengthen the hands
of Hamas and Jihad and will signal those forces that support the PA
that they should re-engage in violence, not dialogue. The surest way
for Sharon to continue the violent conflict is for him to take actions
that further push Arafat and the Authority into the corner. The almost
humorous Israeli government declaration regarding Arafat's irrelevance
only caused Arafat to be the most relevant irrelevant person in the
world.
Never has someone so irrelevant been talked about
so much by so many people in so many capitals of the world, including
in Jerusalem. An Israeli Government decision that would declare Arafat
and the Authority as an enemy would only serve to weaken international
pressure on Arafat and bring about an end to any efforts that he is
currently making to control and lessen the level of violence.
This is perhaps what Sharon really wants. He
has Netanyahu breathing down his neck. Other Likud leaders are pushing
Sharon to declare elections now while the Likud appears to be very strong
in the polls and the Labour party has become nearly irrelevant in public
opinion.
But Sharon is afraid of Netanyahu's challenge.
Sharon's greatest asset is the national unity government it keeps him
strong and popular and keeps the Labour party effectively out of the
game. Sharon knows that any move towards new negotiations with the Palestinians
will lead to a quick withdrawal of the Labour Party from the government
and that will then lead to new elections.
Sharon's goal is political survival. Until now,
the Palestinians have been Sharon's greatest ally in keeping in power.
His main game is to make sure that he is not forced into negotiations
with the Palestinians because he knows that he has nothing to offer
them. Even Ben Eliezer couldn't stay a passive bulldog on Sharon's leash
for much longer if the real leadership of Labour really believed that
negotiations with the Palestinians could be productive.
There is no doubt that the PA's ship of arms
captured by the Israelis was a grave mistake by Arafat and the Authority
and it's is a good thing that Israel captured the ship. These arms,
should they have gotten to those who intended to use them would have
caused great pain and Israel would have increased its retaliations against
the Palestinians with great force. The cache of arms proves to many
that Arafat has not adopted a strategy of peace.
The Palestinians cannot win a military victory
against Israel and it is strategically insane for them to even try.
The Palestinians lose any claim to a moral high ground when they embrace
the armed struggle. They must aim their struggle at the hearts and minds
of Israelis, most of who still want to live in peace with a State of
Palestine as a good neighbor.
Palestinian citizens should also be angry with
Arafat for wasting their very limited financial resources; about $15
million for purchasing weapons when at the same time their economy is
in shambles and poverty is in almost every home.
Once again, as I have stated in the past few
weeks, the people of Israel and the people of Palestine must raise their
voices for peace. There is much work to be done. There are those who
can do it within their own communities and there are those who can work
cross-boundary - Israelis and Palestinians together.
We must force peace onto our leaders. We also
need the support of our friends from around the world who share our
hopes for peace. We must be realistic and focused. The challenge before
us is extremely difficult. The enemies of peace, on both sides, are
many and formidable.
We must develop a strategy aimed at building
points of power and constituencies for peace. We must aim at building
coalitions working together sharing information and resources. We must
aim at putting women in the forefront of the struggle. We must not lose
hope, even if the struggle will take years. We must not allow the determinism
of the enemies of peace to destroy our future.
The occupation must end. Settlements must be
removed. Refugees must be given choices that answer their real needs
without bringing about the destruction of Israel. We must all reject
violence and work against those who destroy us all through their
violence.
We will win and there will be peace.
Gershon Baskin, Ph.D.
Co-Director IPCRI - Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
P.O. Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092
Telephone: 972-2-676-9460
Fax: 972-2-676-8011
Mobile: 052-381-715
Home Page: http://www.ipcri.org
IPCRI General Email: ipcri@ipcri.org
Gershon Baskin: gershon @ipcri.org
Zakaria al Qaq: law@ipcri.org
Environment and Water Program:
environment@ipcri.org
Peace Education Project: peace_education@ipcri.org
Nedal Jayousi: nedal@ipcri.org
Anat Reisman-Levy: anat@ipcri.org
Robin Twite: robin@ipcri.org
Amjad Jaouni: amjad@ipcri.org
Ronnie Cohen-Ginat: ronnie@ipcri.org
JEMS: jems@ipcri.org
Cyrien Khano: cyrien@ipcri.org